NBA 11/13/2023 Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunders

 It’s tough to take much info from the previous meetings between the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder considering Phoenix’s roster swap, Durant’s ankle accident in warmup, and the fact OKC has been without All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in both matchups with Phoenix this season.

Gilgeous-Alexander will be in action tonight and that full-strength Thunder offense is a rough draw for a Suns roster running thin and missing their defensive anchor inside.

The Suns are among the best teams at keeping opponents out of the paint and face an OKC squad with the highest drive rating in the NBA and the third-most points in the paint per game. Ayton’s 7-foot frame and quick rotation on the help defense is a big part of protecting the paint, and the Suns will miss his ability to change shots inside tonight.

Phoenix looks to lesser-used centers Jake Landale and Bismack Biyombo in Ayton’s absence and coach Williams could decide to go smaller against an up-tempo Oklahoma City team. The Thunder sit No. 2 in pace rating and their aggressive transition will test the gas of a Suns roster running quite thin without Ayton in action.

The Suns will not only miss his defensive presence but also his scoring efficiency, with Ayton shooting close to 59% on the season. One of the best ways to slow a transition team is to shoot well from the floor and force them to inbound the ball on most possessions. Phoenix loses its top interior producer and that pushes more Suns’ shots to the outside.

Oklahoma City finds another gear at home, putting up an average of 121 points per home game while firing at better than 48% from the floor. The Thunder boast one of the best net ratings as a host and have come through for OKC backers in four straight appearances in front of the Thunder faithful while ranking among the best home bets in the NBA.

Before Ayton was ruled out, Phoenix was a 2.5-point road favorite for Sunday’s matinee. We’ve seen this line swing as far as OKC -2, with the market consensus settling in at OKC -1 this morning.

Ayton’s absence absolutely changes things for the Suns on both ends of the floor against a team like the Thunder, and the adjustment doesn’t seem significant enough.

Match prediction: Thunders -1

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